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Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index fell, neverthless failed to update the previous low. After the publication of the Fed materials (Fed minutes), market participants became stronger in the opinion that the US regulator may slow down the growth of the rate. The 10-Year US Treasury yield dropped to a 7-week low of 3.66% on Friday. The euro weakened against some currencies in anticipation of preliminary data on inflation in the EU for November, which will be released on November 30th. The New Zealand dollar strengthened as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its rate to 4.25% from 3.5%. South African Reserve Bank also raised the rate to 7% from 6.25%. This contributed to the strengthening of the South African rand.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. It is possible that the activity of market participants has decreased before the Thanksgiving Day in the US, which will be on November 24th. Nevertheless, we can note the weakening of the US dollar against certain currencies due to investors' expectations that the Fed rate will slow down its growth and is unlikely to exceed 5%. The strengthening of the Australian dollar was facilitated by good data on the labor market in October and a decrease in the Australia Unemployment Rate to 3.4%. The New Zealand dollar strengthened on the decline of the New Zealand Producer Price Index (PPI) in the 3rd quarter. The Swiss franc strengthened on strong foreign trade performance in October and growth in Switzerland Industrial Production in Q3 2022.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has fallen by almost 4% due to important statistics. In October, US inflation amounted to +0.4% m/m. This is less than expected (+0.6% m/m). Now the probability of a Fed rate hike of 0.5% has exceeded 80%, while a week earlier it was only 52%. Prior to this, the American regulator raised the rate by 0.75% four times in a row and now it is 4%. It should be noted that annual inflation in the US in October for the first time in 8 months turned out to be less than 8% and amounted to 7.7%. This is the minimum since January of this year +7.5% y/y. Cryptocurrency quotes collapsed amid the possible bankruptcy of the FTX Cryptocurrency Exchange. The Australian and New Zealand dollars strengthened noticeably due to rising prices for commodities. An additional positive for them was the easing of anti-coronavirus restrictions in China. The yen was supported by an unexpectedly large Japan Current Account in September.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has grown significantly and updated the maximum since June 2002. Now it is trading above the psychological level of 110 points. Over the past 12 months, the US dollar index has risen by almost 20%. The main positive for the US currency was the increase in the Fed rate to 3.25% from 2.5% at the meeting on September 21. Investors do not rule out that by March 2023 the rate may increase to 4.5%. Bank of Japan maintained a negative rate (-0.1%) at the September 22 meeting. At the same time, BOJ carried out foreign exchange intervention for the first time since 1998. This contributed to the strengthening of the yen. The Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone weakened amid stagnation in global hydrocarbon prices. These countries actively produce and export oil and natural gas. The New Zealand Trade Balance 12-Months record deficit in August could have contributed to the decline in the New Zealand dollar quotes. Note that the negative balance of New Zealand foreign trade has been observed for 16 months in a row.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen, but failed to renew the recent high. The Swiss franc strengthened ahead of the Swiss National Bank meeting on September 22. In June, the bank raised the rate from (-0.75%) to (-0.25%), for the first time since 2007. Investors hope that the tightening of the SNB's monetary policy will continue. The yen weakened on the back of weak economic data and a new record Japan Trade Balance deficit in August (-2.82 trillion yen). The next meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on September 22. Rate hike (-0.1%) is not expected yet. It has been negative since 2016. The Australian and New Zealand dollars are weakening against the backdrop of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. China is a significant trading partner of these countries.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index rose and hit a 20-year high. This was facilitated by good economic statistics on the labor market from independent agencies ISM, ADP, Challenger and some others. Investors are looking forward to positive official data (United States Nonfarm Payrolls) for August, which will be released on September 2. The euro is supported by the plans of the European Central Bank to raise the rate (+0.5%) for the second time in a row at the meeting on September 8. The New Zealand dollar weakened amid the opinion of Adrian Orr (head of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) that the rate hike slowed down the growth of the New Zealand economy. Recall that the RBNZ increased its rate 7 times in a row from 0.25% to 3%. Shares Tesla fell on the back of a reduction in subsidies for sales of electric vehicles in the US, in accordance with the Inflation Reduction Act, and a strong increase in electricity prices in the EU could also be a negative factor.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen. At the same time, US dollar was unable to update the 20-year high recorded 2 weeks ago. The main positive factor is investors' expectations that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) will raise the rate immediately by 0.5% to 2.25% at the next meeting on July 27th. Now CME FedWatch estimates the probability of such an event at 83.2%. The strengthening of the US dollar contributed to lower prices for precious metals and commodities. This, in turn, weakened the currencies of commodity countries: the South African rand, the Australian and New Zealand dollars. High natural gas prices in the European Union have pushed energy-intensive companies such as steelmaker ThyssenKrupp AG down. The ongoing crisis in Ukraine contributed to the weakening of the currencies of European countries that are not part of the euro area: the Polish zloty, Czech and Swedish krona. The Turkish lira has strengthened slightly due to the start of the tourist season. Investors expect an influx of foreign currency from tourists.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has risen. Investors do not rule out a US Federal Reserve rate hike of 0.5% to 1.5% at the June 15 meeting. US 10-year Treasury trades with yields above 3% per annum. The Australian dollar strengthened as the Reserve Bank of Australia hiked its rate to 0.85% from 0.35%. Its growth at once by 0.5% was the first time in the last 20 years. The Canadian dollar and the Russian ruble strengthened against the backdrop of rising oil prices. The South African rand strengthened on strong Q1 2022 GDP data for South Africa (+1.9% q/q). The Japanese yen continued to weaken on the back of Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's statement that a weak yen could have a positive impact on the Japanese economy. Japan Gross Domestic Product in Q1 2022 (-0.5% y/y) was better than expected (-1% y/y). This may help keep the BoJ loose monetary policy. The Turkish lira continued to weaken as the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey maintains its rate at 14% despite inflation rising to 73.5% y/y in May.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index has not changed much. Investors are waiting for the publication of data on the labor market for May (United States Nonfarm Payrolls), which will be released on Friday, June 3rd. They may affect the speed of tightening the Fed's monetary policy. The Canadian dollar strengthened on the Bank of Canada rate hike to 1.5% from 1%. Australia Gross Domestic Product rose 3.3% YoY in Q1 2022, more than expected. Australia Trade Balance in April also exceeded the forecast. This contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar. The Russian ruble weakened after the Bank of Russia cut the rate to 11% from 14%. The weakening of the Japanese yen was supported by preliminary data on the reduction of Japan Industrial Production in April. In addition, investors do not expect monetary policy tightening at the June 17th meeting of the Bank of Japan. The weakening of the euro was facilitated by the refusal to import Russian oil, as well as record pre-inflation in the EU in May of 8.1% y/y.

Over the past 7 days, the US dollar index continued to decline. According to FOMC Minutes for May, the Federal Reserve may raise the rate (1%) on June 15 and July 27 twice by 0.5%. Some representatives of the US regulator believe that after the rate reaches 2%, it is necessary to take a break. Such thoughts have a negative impact on the US currency. Especially, against the background of rising rates of most other world central banks. In particular, the strengthening of the New Zealand dollar was facilitated by the increase in the rate of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to 2% from 1.5%. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey kept the rate at 14% despite high inflation (+70% y/y in April).

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