US inflation data to be released today - 12.5.2021

Today the US dollar index is trading near the psychological level of 90 points for the third day in a row. Investors are awaiting the publication of important data on US inflation for April. According to forecasts, it may soar to its high since September 2011 and amount to 3.2-3.6% in annual terms. This is much higher than both the Fed's 0.25% rate and its 2% inflation target. Note that after the global economic crisis in 2008, the inflation in the United States reached its maximum in September 2011 and amounted to 3.9%. At the peak of the crisis, inflation rose to 5.6% in July 2008. Investors are looking forward to any statements by the Fed on the surge in consumer prices. If the American regulator maintains its monetary policy unchanged, the dollar rate is likely to continue to decline. If the Fed tightens its policy, the US currency may strengthen, and stock indices may go down.

On Tuesday, US stocks fell for the second day in a row. Investors fear a tightening of the Fed's monetary policy amid high inflation. The Q1 2021 reporting season for US companies is already coming to an end. According to Refinitiv, the total profit of the S&P 500 companies increased by 50.4% compared to Q1 2020. The growth of the S&P 500 quotations over the past 12 months has been less and amounted to 42%. Tesla shares plunged 7.2% yesterday on reports of a 27% drop in electric vehicle sales in China.

World oil prices are rising for the second day in a row. Mass vaccination against coronavirus is taking place in the US and the number of infected people is decreasing. Against this backdrop, the American Automobile Association reported a significant increase in gasoline demand. Its US price has peaked since November 2014 and approached $3 per gallon. The independent American Petroleum Institute announced a reduction in US oil reserves for the week by 2.5 million barrels. OPEC predicts an increase in world oil demand this year by 5.95 million barrels per day.