World Bank cuts its global economic growth forecast - 8.6.2022

On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued its growth. However, by the end of the day, its change was minimal. Investors responded positively to US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's forecast that inflation this year could fall to 4.7% from 8.3% y/y in April. Recall that important data on US inflation for May will be published on Friday, June 10. This morning, the Japanese currency topped 133 yen to the US dollar for the first time in 20 years. This was facilitated by the statement of the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda that the weak yen could have a positive impact on the Japanese economy. This morning in Japan were published weak data. Gross Domestic Product fell 0.5% y/y in Q1 2022. Japan Goods Trade Balance turned negative in April for the 6th consecutive month.

Bitcoin has been trading in a tight range near the $30,000 psychological support level for the 4th week in a row. Investors are trying to assess the risks of cryptocurrencies after the collapse of the Terra ecosystem. They are also awaiting a decision from New York authorities to ban mining from Proof-of-Work (PoW) non-renewable electricity. There is a possibility that this law may later be extended to the entire United States. Another deterrent for the crypto market may be the renewed investigation by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission into the activities of the Binance Holdings crypto exchange regarding the legality of issuing (initial coin offering (ICO) of its BNB token in 2017.

Yesterday, US stock indices rose for the 2nd day in a row. This was mainly due to good corporate news. Against the backdrop of expensive oil, quotes of oil and gas companies APA, ConocoPhillips, Exxon Mobil and Valero Energy rose by almost 5%. Quotes of Chevron Corp (+1.96%) hit a new all-time high. Novavax shares rose 22% after the announcement of the registration of its new Covid-19 vaccine. Department store chain Kohl's Corp does not rule out acquiring Franchise Group stores. After such a message, the shares of these companies rose in price by 9.5% and 4.8%, respectively. Yesterday the US trade balance for April was published. The deficit amounted to $87.1 billion and turned out to be slightly better than forecasts. Today there will be data on wholesale stocks (Wholesale Inventories). Now futures for US stock indices are traded down. Market participants reacted negatively to the publication of a new World Bank review. He lowered his forecast for global GDP growth in 2022 to +2.9% from +4.1% in the January review. In 2023, global economic growth may slow to +1.5%. Recall that in 2021, global GDP increased by 5.1%. It can be noted that according to the World Bank, the GDP growth of the US and the EU in 2022 will be the same and will amount to 2.5%, while the Chinese economy will grow by 4.3%.

On Tuesday, oil quotes rose slightly. Brent continues to try to gain a foothold above the psychological level of $120 per barrel. A positive factor was the decision of the European Union to stop importing Russian oil. U.S. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects Russian oil production to decline to 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd) in Q4 2023 from 11.3 million bpd in Q1 2022. A negative factor for the oil market was the announcement of the American Petroleum Institute on the increase in oil reserves in the US for the week by 1.845 million barrels.

Quotes of natural gas in the US yesterday updated the maximum since August 2008. This was supported by EIA data on the increase in exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the United States for 4 months of 2022 to 11.5 billion cubic feet per day. This is an 18% increase compared to the 2021 annual average. 74% of US LNG is now shipped to European countries. Previously, they abandoned Russian pipeline gas due to economic sanctions. For 12 months, the price of American gas has doubled.