United States Nonfarm Payrolls will be released today - 2.6.2023

On Thursday, the US dollar index experienced a significant decline. After the release of economic data, investors became even more convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would not raise interest rates on June 14. The ADP Research Institute reported an increase of 278,000 jobs in May, which was higher than expected. United States Construction Spending in April also exceeded forecasts, rising by 1.2% m/m. The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) slightly decreased in May to 46.9 points from 47.1 in April. All of this could be a sign that the current Fed rate of 5.25% is adequate for the US economy. The euro strengthened significantly yesterday. This was aided by a decrease in the European Union Consumer Price Index (inflation) to +6.1% y/y in May compared to +7% y/y in April. Additionally, following European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde's speech, market participants became convinced of a 0.25% rate hike by the ECB to +4% from the current level of +3.75% at the meeting on June 15.

Bitcoin quotes have been trading within a range of approximately $30,500 to $26,500 for 11 weeks. Today, they are slightly increasing. It is worth noting the continued rise in Ripple (XRPUSD) quotes, which have surged by +11.7% in the past 7 days due to progress in the legal dispute with the U.S. SEC. Litecoin (LTCUSD) has increased by +9.3% and Solana (SOLUSD) by +9% in the past 7 days.

Yesterday, US stock indices rose. Investors responded positively to the potential pause in the Fed's rate hikes. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker stated that the US central bank is close to transitioning from rate hikes to keeping rates steady until inflation in the US subsides. It is worth noting that in April, inflation stood at +4.9% y/y, which was below the Fed's rate of +5.25%. The Fed's target inflation rate is 2%. Another positive for the stock market was the approval by the US House of Representatives of an actual increase in the debt limit ($31.4 trillion). It now needs to be approved by the US Senate. Shares of oilfield services companies Halliburton Company (+4.7%), Baker Hughes Co (+5%), and Schlumberger NV (+5%) increased due to the rise in oil prices. The quotes of Meta Platforms Inc rose by 3% following the presentation of a new mixed-reality headset. Today, official data on the US labor market for May (United States Nonfarm Payrolls) will be published.

Today, oil prices are rising for the second consecutive day. The risk of an economic crisis has significantly diminished against the backdrop of the imminent approval of the U.S. debt ceiling bill. The official data on the change in American crude oil inventories for the week, released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), turned out to be lower than the estimate from the American Petroleum Institute (API), standing at +4.49 million barrels. Market participants are likely to refrain from active trading ahead of the OPEC+ meeting on June 4. Oil-producing countries will discuss additional production cuts. Previously, some representatives expressed the opinion that a Brent crude oil price of no less than $80 per barrel is necessary for the development of the global oil industry.

Natural gas in Europe on the ICE Dutch TTF is currently trading at around $260 per 1000 cubic meters. The quotes for American gas at the Henry Hub have dropped to $2.18 per mmBtu. The April minimum and a strong support level for them are at $2.