Saudi Arabia deal as Trump visits Middle East buoys US market - 23.5.2017

SP 500 advance three sessions in row

US stocks advanced on Monday third session in a row led by technology stocks. The dollar weakened slightly : the live dollar index data show the ICE US Dollar index, a measure of the dollar’s strength against a basket of six rival currencies, slipped 0.15% to 96.974. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 0.4% to 20894.83, led by Boeing and 3M shares, up 1.6% and 1.4% respectively. S&P 500 gained 0.5% settling at 2394.02 amid light trading led by technology, utility and industrial stocks. The Nasdaq composite index added 0.8% closing at 6133.62.

Industrial stocks rose 0.7% as shares of defense companies advanced on an arms deal with Saudi Arabia valued more than $100 billion announced during President Trump’s two day visit of Saudi Araba capital Riyadh on his travel to Middle East. Investor are now focusing on US political news as earnings season is mostly over and concerns linger about president Trump’s ability to deliver on his pledged tax cut and deregulation programs as his administration is distracted in battling accusations Trump asked then-FBI director James Comey to stop an investigation into Russian meddling in US elections. Tensions rose further after Washington Post reported president Trump in March asked intelligence chiefs to publicly deny any collusion between his campaign and Russia. As investors await the release of Federal Reserve May meeting minutes on Wednesday, Fed Governor Lael Brainard struck a dovish tone with a comment she doesn’t see much progress on core inflation. Market participants currently expect the Federal Reserve will keep on track with two more hike rates this year, with traders in Fed fund futures pricing about 80% probability of a rate hike at June meeting. Traders are considering also Trump’s budget proposal which includes $3.6 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years aimed at cutting public financing for the poor, recent college graduates and farmers. Today at 15:45 CET preliminary May Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be published in US, the tentative outlook is positive for the dollar. At 16:00 CET April New Home Sales will be released, the outlook is negative.

SP 500

Merkel’s euro comment weighs on European equities

European stock indices retreated on Monday led by German stocks as the euro rallied after comments about the shared currency by German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Merkel blamed European Central Bank policies for making the euro “too weak”. The British Pound weakened against the dollar. The Stoxx Europe 600 index lost less than 0.1% in a choppy trade. The DAX 30 fell 0.2% to close at 12619.46. France’s CAC 40 lost less than 0.1% while UK’s FTSE 100 outperformed gaining 0.3% to 7496.24.

Bank shares led the losses. Euro hit six-week high as Merkel said a weaker euro has made German products cheaper speaking in front of students in Berlin and explaining rising German trade surplus. British Pound fell as poll showed the Conservative Party’s 20-point lead over Labor ahead of June 8 general election fell to 9% after Conservatives proposed cutting winter fuel allowance for some pensioners and having elderly pay more for the cost of their care. Eurozone finance ministers, the International Monetary Fund and the Greek government failed reach an agreement on Greece’s debt relief and decided to postpone a decision for their next meeting in mid-June. Today at 09:30 CET preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMIs for May will be published in Germany, the outlook is positive for euro. At 10:00 CET German Ifo Business Climate survey results for May and euro-zone Manufacturing and Services PMIs will be released, the tentative outlook is positive for euro. At 10:30 CET April Public Sector Net Borrowing will be released in UK, the tentative outlook is negative for British Pound.

Asian markets dip

Asian stock indices are lower today led by Chinese stocks as investor confidence was undermined by suicide bomber attack in Manchester overnight. Nikkei ended 0.3% lower at 19613.28 today with yen gaining against the dollar on increased haven demand. Chinese stocks are lower on tighter liquidity concerns over a regulatory crackdown on risky lending practices: the Shanghai Composite Index is down 0.5%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is 0.1% higher. Australia’s All Ordinaries Index is down 0.15% as Australian dollar extended gains against the greenback.

Oil prices fall on US strategic reserves sales proposal

Oil futures prices are falling today after surprise proposal by US President Donald Trump to sell half the country's strategic oil reserves. The US strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) are the world's biggest, at around 688 million barrels, a week's worth of global oil demand. The White House budget plan proposes selling off half of the SPR from 2018 to 2027 to raise $16.5 billion from October 2018. Prices extended gains on Monday on news Saudi Arabia and Iraq together back a nine-month extension of the OPEC output cuts. Prices have been after last week Saudi Arabia and Russia, the biggest non-OPEC oil producer, said they back an extension till the end of March 2018. July Brent crude gained 0.5% to settle at $53.87 a barrel on Monday on London’s ICE Futures exchange.