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Dollar sentiment improves despite weak jobs report
US dollar net short bets fell further to $15.41 billion from $16.82 against the major currencies during the previous week, according to the report of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering data up to October 10 released on Friday October 13. Bearish dollar bets fell despite weaker than expected nonfarm payrolls report for September.
Economic data were positive on balance during the week. The ISM’s nonmanufacturing index in September hit a 12-year high of 59.8. A number above 50 indicates expansion. Factory orders for August rebounded to 1.2% from a 3.3% drop in July, suggesting a likely acceleration In US GDP growth in fourth quarter as business investment rises. Congress passed a $4.1 trillion budget, which is considered as a first step to enacting US tax code overhaul. A weaker jobs report was expected due to hurricanes’ impact but the 33 thousand contraction Nonfarm payrolls was a negative surprise. On the positive side the earnings rose more than expected, boosting chances of another rate hike in December. As is evident from the Sentiment table, sentiment improved for euro and Canadian dollar. And the euro, Canadian and Australian dollars together with British Pound remain the four major currencies held net long against the US dollar.
CFTC Sentiment vs Exchange Rate
October 10 2017 | Bias | Ex RateTrend | Position $ mln | Weekly Change |
CAD | bullish | negative | 6106 | 89 |
AUD | bullish | positive | 5380 | -243 |
EUR | bullish | neutral | 14474 | 1150 |
GBP | bullish | positive | 1279 | -371 |
CHF | bearish | neutral | -547 | -124 |
JPY | bearish | positive | -11284 | -1909 |
Total | 15409 |
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